The End of Cheap Oil, The Beginning of Change and The Future

In our last class discussion we talked about the global peak oil issue and it’s many subsidiary problems. The first issue we addressed was, is this “peak oil” hypothesis true or false, and does it matter? We all clearly concluded that this hypothesis is indeed true, but I believe that the second question had a less definite answer in the minds of many in the class; at least it did for me. While not does it matter, but WHEN will it matter?

“Peak Oil” is referring to the amount of oil that is in the ground around the globe. Basically when extracting oil from the Earth, a classical bell shape curve can be used to demonstrate the amount of oil extracted. Starting out little oil is extracted then it rises quickly until it “peaks”, then after the peak it gradually falls and tapers off on the other end. So this peak we are referring to signifies the point in time that the entire Earth’s oil has reached its maximum limit of extraction, and from there on in, no matter what methods used, that amount of oil will never be obtained again. Yes, this is clearly happening and many scientists are backing this statement. Some even predicted it many years ago (M. King Hubbert).

Now what does this mean for us? The first thing that came to my mind was that if indeed the world’s oil can be displayed on a bell-curve, and indeed this oil will peak, in lets say approximately 2010; then the amount of oil that could be extracted from the Earth in 2030 would be the same amount that we have extracted in 1990. Did we have an oil crisis in 1990? Well no, but the question is not that simple. While according to this bell curve the same amount of oil can be extracted and that may very well be true, but what about the difficulty of getting this oil. We are talking about “tough-to-get oil” now, the kind of oil that needs to be forced out of the Earth because it lays much deeper in the wells. This oil takes a lot more ENERGY to get to and more to extract it. More energy, more money, more possible conflicts, and more political and war turmoil. What happens in the future on the other end of this curve if we have not found another primary source of energy? I would predict war, already our country’s main military policy seems to revolve around oil rich areas in the middle east (coincidence?), so what about when there is a limited amount of oil for all of the Earth’s nations? Then what? I personally don’t want to know and hopefully no one will have to, if we make the CHANGE now.

So the United States, an empire built of the success of two world wars, creates a suburban lifestyle for all. A lifestyle where “one person, one car” is rule of thumb and people drive everywhere, to get food at the grocery store, to go to work, to school, to go to the movies, etc. We DRIVE, this uses gas, when the gas is gone, or very pricey (likely to come first), what happens? Do we continue to drive everywhere? What can we do?

There are a few promising options for a new primary energy source mentioned on this blog so please read up, but I would like to talk about the lifestyle change that is in-store for us. In the future things will most likely become much more local. This goes for all aspects of life; things such as driving to the store by highway will then be replaced by walking down to one’s town’s center. In this center or square would be everything you will need. There will be “local” businesses like deli’s, grocery stores, hardware stores, electronic stores, and entertainment, everything you can think of. People like you and I in the community will run these stores. People will have to learn to support each other within their community. We will depend on each other and not oil. This more primitive lifestyle may seem difficult or dull to some. What about those who want to travel? Well new means of “public” transportation will be used, and guess where it will be located? In the Town Square or center. Buses running on some new energy source will take people where they need to go. I personally think that this lifestyle will bring people closer together and people could be happier because each person will have an important job to service their community and everyone will be valuable. On the contrary, I do not want to get rid of my car and the freedom it brings me, or the freedom I THINK it brings me.

New Urbanism is the name of a community based, local lifestyle housing project currently in the works. Go to this link for some general information:

http://www.newurbanism.org/newurbanism/principles.html

Stupidity versus Brilliance

Last class discussion was very productive and we talked about the different issues linked with diminishing oil and possible solutions to allow society to continue to thrive. However with these possible solutions also means change and large scale cooperation, and will pose questions such as “Risk vs. Safety,” will it mean the downgrade of society (classes merging), and what are the trade-offs. Many students in the class suggested some possible solutions that may help our future situation. I figured I might add to these ideas and make people aware of some of the other possible solutions that exist I have came across through surfing the internet and reading science articles on reliable websites. I came across two very interesting articles on the National Geographic website both discussing promising ideas for renewable energy sources and proving future hope.

Because I am interested in the newly developing field of nanotechnology myself I will discuss this article first, “Spray-On Solar-Power Cells Are True Breakthrough," written by Stefan Lovgren. According to the article, “Scientists have invented a plastic solar cell that can turn the sun's power into electrical energy.” This is not unheard of in fact solar panels today use this technology (plastic solar cells) in collecting energy from the sunlight. However this is not the only energy the sun emits. While half of the sun's power lies in the visible spectrum which is sunlight, the other half lies in the infrared spectrum (which is non-visible radiant heat energy). Thus with these new plastic solar cells, using nanotechnology can also collect solar energy on a cloudy day; the first of their kind. This will increase the efficiency of pre-existing solar energy collecting technology from 6 percent to a staggering 30 percent according to Peter Peumans, an electrical engineering professor at Stanford University. "The sun that reaches the Earth's surface delivers 10,000 times more energy than we consume," said Ted Sargent, an electrical and computer engineering professor at the University of Toronto, who was also one of the inventors stated in the article. He also states, "If we could cover 0.1 percent of the Earth's surface with [very efficient] large-area solar cells, we could in principle replace all of our energy habits with a source of power which is clean and renewable." What can we do with these plastic solar cells? They can be sprayed onto virtually anything. Some ideas of their use suggested in the article include, sweaters coated with the material that could in turn power cell phones or other wireless devices. Also, a hydrogen-powered car painted with the cells could potentially convert enough energy into electricity to continually recharge the car's battery. They could possibly be incorporated into paints where entire building can be sprayed and in turn power themselves with the solar energy they absorb. Residential houses could be painted with the same paint, or windows could be coated with a film of the cells. The possibilities are quite broad, and obviously a breakthrough. In the article, it states that “researchers envision that one day "solar farms" consisting of the plastic material could be rolled across deserts to generate enough clean energy to supply the entire planet's power needs.”

The second article titled, “Can Earth Be Powered by Energy Beamed From Moon?,” written by Bijal P Trivedi, discusses something called a Lunar Solar Power System (LSP). “David Criswell, a physicist and Space Age veteran began looking into lunar-based power systems over 20 years ago during a decade-long stint at the Lunar Science Institute, which is now the Lunar and Planetary Institute, established in 1967 by Lyndon Johnson to maintain interest in the moon.” According to the article, “While he was there he participated in the administration of peer-reviewed proposals on lunar and planetary science, thus he had a constant exposure to lunar-related research and development.” In other words, he is a moo expert and the man for the job if there is somebody. Stated was that, “Between a half a billion and a billion dollars was spent to analyze moon rocks during the 1970s and 1980s, collected during the six Apollo moon landings. It was revealed that rocks contained an abundance of silicon, magnesium, aluminum, and titanium—the basic material required for building solar cells.” How convenient. With that being said Criswell is confident with the cooperation of the nation and the world, we would be able to utilize resources on the moon in order to successfully set up LSP. The article explains that “His idea is to use lunar materials to build bases on the moon that will collect solar energy and convert it to microwaves, which would then be beamed to a several thousand receivers around Earth. The microwaves subsequently are converted into electricity sent to local power grids.” More specifically, the system would require between 20 to 40 power bases located on the eastern and western edges of the moon, from Earth’s perspective and Criswell estimates that in 2050, a population of about 10 billion would require about 20 terawatts of power. Because the moon receives more than 13,000 terawatts of solar power, by just harnessing one percent of this plentiful energy source, we could easily satisfy Earth's power needs, states Criswell in the article. The problem however is of course cost.

I believe the combination of these ideas, as well as various others also suggested in class can result in a major turnaround for the future of our planet. In fact by just making people aware of these different perspectives and suggested solutions that they may never have heard of opens their eyes to hope and perhaps will drive them to work towards one or their own. How do you think I became interested in physics and nanotechnology? Simply by reading articles and watching channels that discuss scientific breakthroughs. What could be more important or interesting than contributing in some way to determine the outcome of our future planet I ask myself? Doing something is 100 times better than doing absolutely nothing but shooting down ideas. Physics and science was frowned upon by the church for the longest time, if those great physicists and scientific thinkers simply quit, where we would be today. As much as many viewed their opinions as lunacy or heresy, past scientific discoveries set the foundation for what we build upon today. Yes it may cost a major change in our way of living, and require much cooperation as a nation and world to make all of these ideas successful, to implement renewable energy resources on a large scale, but is it not worth taking that leap? Rather than stay our course of certain demise we are on now?

References

• Article 1
  http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0114_050114_solarplastic.html
• 
  Article 2
  http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/04/0426_042602_TVmoonenergy_2.html
  

Future Famine?

The major limiting factor of the human population, always has and always will be, the available food supply. Agricultural methods today make use of petroleum in pesticides and machinery to grow crops as well as being used in the vehicles that transport the food. With the current problem of being at the stage of peak oil and the world population rapidly growing, a catastrophe could be waiting to happen if nothing is done.

As available oil drops, our dependence on it remains the same while and the demand for it increases. For this reason we need to start coming up with a plan to make our food system less oil dependent. This means using less chemical pesticides and fertilizers and more natural ones, reduce the amount of food transportation that occurs while making the transportation that does occur more efficient, and possibly even going as far as to use draft animals like horse to plow fields etc. instead of using farming machinery. This also would require smaller communities and communities that are more self sufficient to reduce the amount of food transportation. This could be an issue in places where the land is not very arable such as Las Vegas however.

Finally if the government were to get rid of the subsidies on certain crops like corn, the money could be put into something more beneficial and bring this plan to fruition. It will by no means be an easy task to carry out a plan like this. To completely change not only our way of life but the entire world's would be extremely difficult and would need everybodies cooperation, but as difficult as it is, it gives the human race a better chance at survival than what we are doing now.

http://archive.richardheinberg.com/archive/159.html

What's Fair is Fair

In our class discussion we mentioned the history and current use of exploitation to make a profit. It’s not surprising that capitalist and imperialist nations thrive from the control of cheap energy, raw materials, and labor because they insure a large profit. Nearly all developed countries have used these ideals to establish their prosperity.

I am reminded me of a unique experience I was privileged to have a few years ago. I went to Belize, Central America to participate in humanitarian work for a few weeks during summer vacation. Our team has been involved in building schools, distributing food and farming tools, and educating the people in more efficient farming techniques.

During my trip, I met men who worked in sugar cane fields making only a couple dollars a day. My team leader bought sugar cane and habanero fields, unlike other US agricultural pimps; his goal is not to exploit this land for its resources. He pays fair wages, in fair working conditions, and has a plan to sell it to a group in the community and supervise its entrance and commitment to the fair trade market. Fair trade “empowers farmers and farm workers to lift themselves out of poverty by investing in their farms and communities, protecting the environment, and developing the business skills necessary to compete in the global marketplace.” Products are bought at a fair price. There are fair labor conditions, which mean there is no child labor, safe working conditions, and respectable wages. The farming methods are also environmentally sustainable! (TransFair USA)

I am not comfortable with knowing that some of the products I enjoy most are holding a community in the death grip of poverty and are destroying land. Therefore, I make the choice (as much as possible) to buy fair trade products. Sometimes, I have to pay a little more money but it’s so worth it! Imagine- If the masses choose fair trade products? Impoverished communities all around the world have the opportunity to improve their quality of life. There may be agricultural changes in the States because businesses are no longer profiting from whoring the third world. They would have to pay the workers more, along with the cost of all that energy for machines and transportation. Businesses may also choose to use methods that will preserve the ecosystem just to compete and please consumers. This could lead to an enriched global community and a healthier planet.

http://www.transfairusa.org/content/about/overview.php

I am uncertain if the farm in Belize is certified by Transfair USA; this organization was used as a resource to better understand all that fair trade stands for.

A Small Town Girl's Perspective

I grew up in a town called Springfield Center in Central New York State. I lived in a modest house--often referred to as a log cabin--that was deliberately built to save energy. It has a southward facing peaked roof (which cuts back dramatically on heating and cooling costs due to natural processes), is double insulated, and is heated with a pellet stove. We have a compost pile on our 4-acre plot of land which we regularly churn to make sure that waste is decomposing in a safe and beneficial way. We grow much of our own food in raised-bed gardens that my dad and I built together when I was very young. Though our gardens are not certified organic(the certification process is long and rigorous), we use only organic soils and natural methods to repel pests, such as planting specific herbs, flowers and vegetables next to each other.
The land across the street from my house is a farming field--often used to grow corn. On the far side of that field is a small forest where many hunters catch food for their families that can easily last through the winter. To the left and right of my house are vacated lots whose owners died from old age. Behind us is a hill that grows several crops including alfalfa and soy beans. If you walk in the field behind my house, there is a hidden path from when I was young. My sister, brother and I used to run with our dog through the field to a creek where we played for hours catching crayfish and swimming. My dad mowed paths through the tall grass(which is half of my yard or about 2 acres) for the horseback riders to use.
Down the street is a farm. It is owned by a very well respected farming family, the Richardsons, who are extremely kind, warm, welcoming people. Though they never rotate their crops and therefore deplete their soil of any nutrients, no one has the heart to tell them(because they're so nice). A little further down the road is a lake--Otsego Lake--which has been made famous by the James Fenimore Cooper novel series(including Last of the Mohicans and The Deerslayer). I don't know how many people have visited this area, but it is absolutely breathtaking. In fact, at the other end of the lake is Cooperstown, which is often referred to as "America's Most Perfect Town"(which, by the way, is totally inaccurate). A trip around "the block" for me is about 3 1/2 miles, and it's certainly not block-shaped. Most importantly, two houses down the road from me is my grandmother...my hero.
My town is full of rich and vibrant history, including my own family history. I live on the land that was once a part of one of the largest dairy farm in Springfield--Glimmerloch Farms. It belonged to my grandfather who was a graduate of Cornell University. They(Cornell) often asked him to teach classes at their university, however, he always declined. He instead would allow college students to work with him throughout the summer on his farm and in return would give them shelter, food, and good company.
I know you're probably wondering why I'm writing all of this. It's extremely personal to me, and is very hard for me to so openly and publicly discuss. However, this is the only way that anyone could possibly understand anything that I say or think.
Many of us come from very different backgrounds. We were immersed in entirely different cultures from the time we were born. I was taught to respect the earth. I was taught that all creatures are equal...in fact, I even place other creatures above humans. I see my town, my home, my family's history changing a little bit every year as winter rolls around. Every year there is less snow, the flowers aren't as bright in the spring, the peepers aren't as loud in the summer, and the stars aren't as outstanding in the fall.
There are changes occuring on this planet that are simply unnatural. I feel it in my bones....I mean, doesn't everybody? Denying these changes will only make life harder later on. I don't see this as a difficult transition, maybe because I've lived so differently than most people my whole life. But I'd like to offer some words of encouragement, even comfort: life as I've lived it is wonderful. I have had so many incredible experiences--things that people go to movie theaters to watch. This is possible for all of us. This is inevitable for all of us...it's something we should be celebrating. After all, who REALLY wants to watch reality TV, anyway??

Holy Carp!

After watching the video in today's class about diminishing supply of fish and destruction of oceanic habitat I was stunned to say the least. The ocean, is...well flipping humongous for lack of a better word and we have only just begun to explore its deepest depths. Yet we've managed to begin destroying what little parts of it we understand.
I had not heard of this issue until today and I'm very upset by that. Where was mainstream media on this? I am currently a Journalism Major and I feel such topics are incredibly important but our culture seems to be so obsessed with Hollywood, no one wants to read about conservation. What doesn't sell isn't reported on and I feel that model is fundamentally flawed. The only way to prevent a dismal future is to communicate and we cant do that if all our media is worried about is their next big check.
I started to write this before our discussion on Wednesday but I think I can roll both messages together.
Communication is the key.
But I don't mean just simply spitting out all your ideas as if they are the only possible way. Communication has to be a balance between listening and understanding your opponent and then speaking your own ideas. We cannot go about demanding corporations bend to our ideas with no exceptions, these are multi-million dollar companies who, if they want, can simply drown out what you're saying. The small movements must attack corporations with understanding and compromises that will eventually lead to a sustainable and yet profitable life.
The same way it would be difficult to argue with someone in french if you don't know french, it is impossible to argue with someone in "environmentalist language" if they only know the language of profit.

The Not So Shocking End To Suburbia

After watching The End of Suburbia I was shocked. It opened my eyes to the fact that the lives we lead will soon be very very different. I entitled my blog The Not So Shocking End To Suburbia for two reasons. The first being that after reflecting a bit i realized that the news delivered in the movie should not be so shocking. We have been talking about recycling and fossil fuels since we were in elementary school and it has be going on long before that. The second reason is because our government is fully aware of what is going on and what is projected to happen yet still they do not properly inform the public. I feel they should be taking more action than they currently are. Gaylord Nelson the founder of earth day felt the same way. Nelson, a senator from Wisconsin, proposed a national protest in 1970 "to shake up the political establishment and force this issue onto the national agenda. " "It was a gamble,but it worked." he said. Earth day and that first protest lead to the creation of the US Environmental Protection Agency and to the passage of the Clean Air, Clean Water, and Endangered Species acts. Since the 70s there have been more agencies and acts passed although they have proven to not be enough. We saw this in The End of Suburbia. The suburbs grew quickly in the early 1900s and the population and growth of the suburbs has not stopped over a hundred years later. In my history class with Professor Wittern-Keller we learned about the US in the 1900s. The rapid immigration to the country lead to and insane growth in cities and than the suburbs and we did not have a strong enough government to deal with the growth at the time. There was hardly any government regulation in those days and I feel that our current situation definitely has contributing factors from this period of time and everything onward in history. During our class discussion it became clear that the different things we are reading and watching are all very interconnected. The class video we watched entitled Stuff addresses consumerism and displays the amount of waste and excess things we have. It also explained the cycle of how things are made and all the flaws in the process. Humans make and consume entirely too much stuff. The creation and consumption of all of this stuff uses our finite supply of fossil fuels. The processes we use for all of this pollutes the earth. The growing number of people on the planet who consume and pollute is stressing the planets resources and all of these things will ultimately put end to "suburbia" and life as we know it. Reading for class and watching these films has opened my eyes to this situation that i along with many others have been ignoring. Being in this class for only two weeks makes me want to get up and do something about it while will still can. I feel like if other people were are informed as we are going to be by the end of the semester they would be willing to do something about it and more things would get done.

http://www.earthday.net/node/77

The End of Suburbia

Stuff