In our last class discussion we talked about the global peak oil issue and it’s many subsidiary problems. The first issue we addressed was, is this “peak oil” hypothesis true or false, and does it matter? We all clearly concluded that this hypothesis is indeed true, but I believe that the second question had a less definite answer in the minds of many in the class; at least it did for me. While not does it matter, but WHEN will it matter?
“Peak Oil” is referring to the amount of oil that is in the ground around the globe. Basically when extracting oil from the Earth, a classical bell shape curve can be used to demonstrate the amount of oil extracted. Starting out little oil is extracted then it rises quickly until it “peaks”, then after the peak it gradually falls and tapers off on the other end. So this peak we are referring to signifies the point in time that the entire Earth’s oil has reached its maximum limit of extraction, and from there on in, no matter what methods used, that amount of oil will never be obtained again. Yes, this is clearly happening and many scientists are backing this statement. Some even predicted it many years ago (M. King Hubbert).
Now what does this mean for us? The first thing that came to my mind was that if indeed the world’s oil can be displayed on a bell-curve, and indeed this oil will peak, in lets say approximately 2010; then the amount of oil that could be extracted from the Earth in 2030 would be the same amount that we have extracted in 1990. Did we have an oil crisis in 1990? Well no, but the question is not that simple. While according to this bell curve the same amount of oil can be extracted and that may very well be true, but what about the difficulty of getting this oil. We are talking about “tough-to-get oil” now, the kind of oil that needs to be forced out of the Earth because it lays much deeper in the wells. This oil takes a lot more ENERGY to get to and more to extract it. More energy, more money, more possible conflicts, and more political and war turmoil. What happens in the future on the other end of this curve if we have not found another primary source of energy? I would predict war, already our country’s main military policy seems to revolve around oil rich areas in the middle east (coincidence?), so what about when there is a limited amount of oil for all of the Earth’s nations? Then what? I personally don’t want to know and hopefully no one will have to, if we make the CHANGE now.
So the United States, an empire built of the success of two world wars, creates a suburban lifestyle for all. A lifestyle where “one person, one car” is rule of thumb and people drive everywhere, to get food at the grocery store, to go to work, to school, to go to the movies, etc. We DRIVE, this uses gas, when the gas is gone, or very pricey (likely to come first), what happens? Do we continue to drive everywhere? What can we do?
There are a few promising options for a new primary energy source mentioned on this blog so please read up, but I would like to talk about the lifestyle change that is in-store for us. In the future things will most likely become much more local. This goes for all aspects of life; things such as driving to the store by highway will then be replaced by walking down to one’s town’s center. In this center or square would be everything you will need. There will be “local” businesses like deli’s, grocery stores, hardware stores, electronic stores, and entertainment, everything you can think of. People like you and I in the community will run these stores. People will have to learn to support each other within their community. We will depend on each other and not oil. This more primitive lifestyle may seem difficult or dull to some. What about those who want to travel? Well new means of “public” transportation will be used, and guess where it will be located? In the Town Square or center. Buses running on some new energy source will take people where they need to go. I personally think that this lifestyle will bring people closer together and people could be happier because each person will have an important job to service their community and everyone will be valuable. On the contrary, I do not want to get rid of my car and the freedom it brings me, or the freedom I THINK it brings me.
New Urbanism is the name of a community based, local lifestyle housing project currently in the works. Go to this link for some general information:
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